BayByeMos
Project
From 10/2024 to 05/2025Principal Investigator: Stephanie Thomas, Carl Beierkuhnlein, Eckhard Nagel
Staff: Oliver Chinonso Mbaoma, Alina Joy Domdey, Lukas Nietsch
The BayByeMos project of the Chair of Biogeography at the University of Bayreuth and the Institute of Medical Management and Health Sciences is investigating the growing risks of mosquito-borne diseases in Bavaria. Mosquito-borne diseases are still largely underestimated risks. The transmission of such diseases has not played a significant role in this country in the recent past. This goes hand in hand with the high probability that such diseases cannot be correctly diagnosed in the event of local transmission. The problem is new and complex because arboviral diseases such as dengue or chikungunya are transmitted by insects that were previously not found in Central Europe. These are often introduced through the movement of goods and travel and spread invasively like the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). However, native mosquito species can also transmit novel viruses, such as West Nile virus, which was introduced via migratory birds and travelers. A validated early warning system is not yet available throughout Germany. Climate change in Bavaria continues to influence the colonization of novel mosquitoes and pathogens, be it through longer activity phases, the number of mosquito generations or the survival of embryos in eggs under milder winter conditions. The replication of viruses in the mosquito is also faster in warm temperatures. Urban heat islands pose a particular challenge for an early warning system, as conventional model approaches often do not achieve the necessary fine spatial resolution to take the microclimate into account. A detailed analysis of the influence of urban heat islands on the settlement and development of mosquitoes and the possibility of disease transmission is not available throughout Germany. The BayByeMos project pursues the following project objectives, with particular emphasis on practical relevance, evaluation and validation: • Validation and supplementation of the existing epidemiological model for West Nile virus transmission through spatial expansion of the existing early warning system to outbreak areas in Germany • Spatially and temporally differentiated assessment of the transmission risk for West Nile virus and Chikungunya virus in urban areas • Spatially and temporally differentiated estimation of the possible abundance (number of individuals) of the Asian tiger mosquito in urban areas • Integration of temperature data from climate change projections for the epidemiological and population biology models in the urban environment • User-friendly optimization of the early warning system with the involvement of experts, various interest groups and the population • Secondary use of the evaluation results by involving the public health service: development of a simplified scoring system to announce preventive rules of conduct in risk areas
Homepage: https://www.bayceer.uni-bayreuth.de/BayByeMos/
List of publications of this Project
| Mbaoma, OC; Thomas, S M; Beierkuhnlein, C: Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany: An Inversely Calibrated Approach, Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health (2024) doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-024-00254-0 -- Details |
| Shittu, R; Thomas, S M; Roiz, D; Ruiz, S; Figuerola, J; Beierkuhnlein, C: Modeling the effects of species associations and abiotic parameters on the abundance of mosquito species in a Mediterranean wetland, Wetlands Ecology and Management (2024) doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-024-09982-3 -- Details |
| Thomas, S M: Invasive alien species: a rising global threat that needs control, The Lancet Planetary Health, 7(11), e875-e876 (2023) doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00233-4 |
| Adeleke, E; Shittu, R; Beierkuhnlein, C; Thomas, S M: High Wind Speed Prevents the Establishment of the Disease Vector Mosquito Aedes albopictus in Its Climatic Niche in Europe, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10(846243) (2022) doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.846243 -- Details |
| Samy, A; Yáñez-Arenas, C; Jaeschke, A; Cheng, Y; Thomas, S M: Modeling Distributional Potential of Infectious Diseases. In: Faruque, F.S. (eds) Geospatial Technology for Human Well-Being and Health. Springer, Cham, ISBN 978-3-030-71376-8, 337-353 (2022) doi:10.1007/978-3-030-71377-5_18 |
| Cheng, Y; Tjaden, N; Jaeschke, A; Thomas, S M; Beierkuhnlein, C: Using centroids of spatial units in ecological niche modelling: Effects on model performance in the context of environmental data grain size, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2021, 1-11 (2021) doi:10.1111/geb.13240 |
| Beierkuhnlein, C; Tjaden, NB; Cheng, Y; Stahlmann, R; Thomas, S M: Mosquito-borne arboviral diseases in Germany? Development of an online tool for preparedness, Hygiene & Medizin, 46, 16 (2021) |
| Tjaden, N; Cheng, Y; Beierkuhnlein, C; Thomas, S M: Chikungunya Beyond the Tropics: Where and When Do We Expect Disease Transmission in Europe?, Viruses, 13, 1024 (2021) doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/v13061024 -- Details |