Poster, 39. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Ökologie (GfÖ), Bayreuth: 14.09.2009 - 18.09.2009
Abstract:
The overall aims of the project, funded by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, are a synthesis of current knowledge on the effects of climate change on species, habitats and biotic interactions, modelling of future distributions of species and habitats and the delineation of specific adaptation strategies for nature conservation. The innovation of our approach consists in particularly addressing the effects of changing climatic trends and events on biotic interactions such as pollination and herbivory as well as on a selection of species and habitats. As a first step a literature database was established and analysed, which covers the current literature on the effects of climate change on fauna, flora, habitats and biotic interactions. The literature analysis revealed a couple of research deficits. The next step is the modelling of climate envelopes with the help of different regional climate models (RCMs), e.g. REMO, CLM, and different scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for European protected species (except of plants) listed in Annex II, IV and V of the Habitats Directive. In addition, modelling studies will highlight likely changes of selected habitats listed in the Annex I. The modelling will include different climatic parameters, biotic interactions and land use changes. Information obtained from the individual parts will be used in a spatial analysis of the Natura 2000 network. Based on the gained understanding, management recommendations will be derived.