Masterarbeit

Integrating Temperature and Land-Cover to Model Aedes albopictus’ Distribution and Abundance at the City Scale Under Climate Change

Lindes De Waal (03/2023-10/2023)

Betreuer: Stephanie Thomas, Carl Beierkuhnlein

Mosquitoes have long since had strong negative impacts on human societies, from their direct effects on human health to the indirect economic costs associated with their management and control. Aedes albopictus, the most invasive mosquito in the world which acts as a vector for various debilitating diseases, has recently spread into central Europe with known established populations in Germany. This raises concern for areas that currently have not yet been invaded by Ae. albopictus such as Bavaria, especially given the continual climate changed-induced warming expected in the future. Furthermore, few studies consider fine spatial resolutions when modelling Ae. albopictus despite the environmental conditions that dictate their survival and reproduction being able to fluctuate abruptly across these fine spatial resolutions. Such variation in habitat suitability occurs readily in urban areas where some land-cover types may be highly suitable while others not. Moreover, Ae. albopictus prefers urban habitats causing a strong possible overlap in Ae. albopictus abundance and human populations with dangerous implications for human health and the economy, making the endeavor to understand their distribution and abundance in urban areas crucial. This study therefore attempted to gauge the suitability of three uncolonized Bavarian cities, Nuremberg, Ingolstadt, and Munich with Ae. albopictus during current and projected climate scenarios. It was found that Ae. albopictus can establish populations in all three cities across all climate scenarios with Ae. albopictus being significantly aided by warming climates. The current absence of Ae. albopictus from these cities despite their suitability for the species highlights the importance of continued monitoring programs to prevent any populations from establishing or, in the case of establishment, reduce their abundance.